EDITION: INTERNATIONAL U.S. MÉXICO ARABIC TV: CNNi CNN en Español Set edition preference Sign up Log in Home Video World U.S. Africa Asia Europe Latin America Middle East Business World Sport Entertainment Tech Travel iReport SHARE THISPrintEmailMore sharingRedditStumbleUponDelicious/* push in config for this share instance */cnn_shareconfig.push({"id" : "cnn_sharebar1","url" : "http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/12/opinion/green-north-korea-scenarios/index.html","title" : "N. Korea endgame: 3 scenarios"});N. Korea endgame: 3 scenariosBy Michael J. Green, Special to CNNApril 12, 2013 -- Updated 1134 GMT (1934 HKT)if (typeof cnnArticleGallery=="undefined"){var cnnArticleGallery={};if(typeof cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList=="undefined"){cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList=[];}}var expGalleryPT00=new ArticleExpandableGallery();expGalleryPT00.setImageCount(33);expGalleryPT00.setAdsRefreshCount(3);//cnn_adbptrackpgalimg("Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military", 1);.cnn_html_slideshow_metadata > .cnn_html_media_utility::before{color:red;content:'>>';font-size:9px;line-height:12px;padding-right:1px}.cnnstrylccimg640{margin:0 27px 14px 0}.captionText{filter:alpha(opacity=100);opacity:1}.cnn_html_slideshow_media_caption a,.cnn_html_slideshow_media_caption a:visited,.cnn_html_slideshow_media_caption a:link,.captionText a,.captionText a:visited,.captiontext a:link{color:#004276;outline:medium none}.cnnVerticalGalleryPhoto{margin:0 auto;padding-right:68px;width:270px}
A North Korea soldier gestures to stop photographers from taking photos from a Chinese tour boat as other soldiers look on along the North Korean bank of the Yalu River near the town of Sinuiji across the Chinese city of Dandong in Liaoning province, China, on Saturday, April 6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the country's military to increase artillery production, a televised report out of Pyongyang showed on Saturday.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":true,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":1,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers gather by the docks in Sinuiju near the Chinese border on Thursday, April 4. North Korea has unleashed another round of scathing rhetoric accusing the United States of pushing the region to the "brink of war." The country may be planning a missile launch soon, a U.S. official told CNN, as tensions mount on the Korean Peninsula. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":2,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers patrol along the Yalu River in Sinuiju across the border from the Chinese city of Dandong on April 4.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":3,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers patrol along the Yalu River in Sinuiju across the border from the Chinese city of Dandong on April 4.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":3,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim Jong Un is briefed by his generals in this undated photo. On the wall is a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target mainland U.S." cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":4,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim Jong Un works during a briefing in this undated photo.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":5,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects drills by the Korean People's Army navy at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast on March 25 in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":6,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim makes his way to an observation post with North Korean soldiers on March 25.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":7,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":8,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim is greeted by the family of a soldier as he inspects Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on Thursday, March 7, in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":9,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7. North Korea has escalated its bellicose rhetoric, threatening nuclear strikes, just before the U.N. Security Council passed tougher sanctions against the secretive nation on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":10,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":11,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location on March 6. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":12,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, poses with chiefs of branch social security stations in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency on November 27. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":13,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim celebrates with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang, North Korea, during the launch of a rocket carrying a satellite, in a photo released by the official North Korean news agency on December 12. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":14,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A crowd watches as statues of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung, and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang on April 13, 2012. Photos from North Korea are rare, but the country was on full display in April 2012 as it celebrated the 100th birthday of Kim Il Sung.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":15,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":16,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket, which broke apart and fell into the sea. The UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":17,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":18,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military "}A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":19,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Koreans wave flags in front of portraits of Kim Il Sung, left, and his son Kim Jong Il during celebrations to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":20,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":21,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":22,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":23,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":24,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":25,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":26,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":27,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim Jong Un visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, which is under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released on July 3, 2012, by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":28,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":29,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":30,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":31,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between Pyongyang and North Pyongan province on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":32,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport during a diplomatic visit on May 2, 2001.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":33,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}HIDE CAPTIONKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military Kim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military<<<
Kim Jong Un works during a briefing in this undated photo.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":5,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects drills by the Korean People's Army navy at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast on March 25 in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":6,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim makes his way to an observation post with North Korean soldiers on March 25.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":7,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":8,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim is greeted by the family of a soldier as he inspects Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on Thursday, March 7, in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":9,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7. North Korea has escalated its bellicose rhetoric, threatening nuclear strikes, just before the U.N. Security Council passed tougher sanctions against the secretive nation on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":10,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":11,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location on March 6. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":12,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, poses with chiefs of branch social security stations in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency on November 27. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":13,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim celebrates with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang, North Korea, during the launch of a rocket carrying a satellite, in a photo released by the official North Korean news agency on December 12. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":14,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A crowd watches as statues of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung, and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang on April 13, 2012. Photos from North Korea are rare, but the country was on full display in April 2012 as it celebrated the 100th birthday of Kim Il Sung.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":15,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":16,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket, which broke apart and fell into the sea. The UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":17,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":18,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military "}
A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":19,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Koreans wave flags in front of portraits of Kim Il Sung, left, and his son Kim Jong Il during celebrations to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":20,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":21,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":22,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":23,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":24,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":25,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":26,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":27,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim Jong Un visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, which is under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released on July 3, 2012, by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":28,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":29,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":30,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":31,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between Pyongyang and North Pyongan province on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":32,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport during a diplomatic visit on May 2, 2001.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":33,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}HIDE CAPTIONKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military Kim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military<<<
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33>>>Event.observe(window,'load',function(){if(typeof(cnn_adbptrackpgalimg) == 'function' && typeof(cnnArticleGallery) != 'undefined'){cnn_adbptrackpgalimg(cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[0].image,"N. Korea endgame: 3 scenarios");}});STORY HIGHLIGHTSMichael Green: North Korea more threatening than usual; three scenarios may play out1. Nuke threats grow; regime will get U.S. to lift sanctions; regime returns to same tactics2. China will turn on North, cut it off; Kim will lose power; North and South reunite sans nukes3. Kim will fire on South; U.S. will get involved; North will fall; Japan, South Korea ravagedEditor's note: Associate Professor Michael Green is senior vice president for the Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Georgetown University. He served as special assistant to the president and senior director for Asia on the National Security Council staff during George W. Bush's administration.(CNN) -- Hyperbolic North Korean threats of war are not new. What is new is the intensity and persistence of those threats this time around.
Add to that an untested 29-year-old leader who is suddenly a four-star general with lots to prove. How does this end? Consider these three possibilities:1. What Kim Jong Un hopes: North Korean threats continue to escalate. Pyongyang renews earlier threats to transfer its "nuclear deterrent capability" to third parties in the Middle East and declares South Korean waters west of the peninsula an open fire zone.The South Korean stock market plummets. Chinese leaders begin to panic about instability on their border. Washington is desperate to set aside the North Korea problem while dealing with a parallel crisis in Iran. The North proposes negotiations on a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War, but only if international sanctions imposed on the regime after their previous nuclear and missile tests are suspended.
Michael J. GreenWashington, Seoul and Tokyo reluctantly agree to the North's terms to avoid further escalation. Meanwhile, the North continues miniaturizing uranium-based nuclear weapons in underground facilities.One year later, they test a more sophisticated warhead design and improved missiles payload. The North then demands the end of remaining international sanctions, recognition as a legitimate nuclear weapons state and a summit meeting in Pyongyang between Kim and President Barack Obama.To back up its threat, the North shells several South Korean islands and threatens to use its newly enhanced nuclear capability if the South retaliates. The crisis resumes, but with the North more dangerous.This has more or less been the pattern thus far.2. What Washington, Seoul and Tokyo hope: Kim's unpredictability finally turns the North's erstwhile ally, China, firmly against the regime.Intensifying U.S.-Japan-South Korean defense cooperation demonstrates how North Korean actions are isolating China within the region. Beijing vows to step up pressure on the regime and stops all inbound North Korean ships and planes for inspections based on U.N. Security Council resolutions.Opinion: Why North Korea worries Dick CheneyBecome a fan of CNNOpinionStay up to date on the latest opinion, analysis and conversations through social media. Join us at Facebook/CNNOpinion and follow us @CNNOpinion on Twitter. We welcome your ideas and comments.When Kim tries to escalate again, Beijing cuts oil shipments to the North by 50% (China's food and fuel shipments keep the small North Korean economy afloat).The North agrees to a moratorium on testing of missiles and nuclear weapons and to resume earlier negotiations on denuclearization. Those talks move at a glacial pace because the North sees nuclear weapons as its only means of regime survival. But Kim's obvious mismanagement of the confrontation has discredited him in front of his generals.Fissures open, and the regime begins slowly to unravel. Careful U.S. and South Korean coordination with China throughout the crisis lays the basis for a managed unification of the peninsula, removal of the North's nuclear and WMD arsenal, and freedom for millions of North Koreans.3. What everyone fears most: Kim's escalation strategy fails to cause the other powers to recognize the North as a legitimate nuclear weapons state or to ease sanctions.The young leader and his advisers continue searching for threats that will terrify the South and cause China to provide further bribes for good behavior, but without provoking a massive U.S. attack on the North. The exuberant but inexperienced Kim approves live artillery fire on uninhabited mountains just outside the South Korean capital of Seoul.The South responds with limited counterbattery fire against the North Korean artillery units.var currExpandable="expand118";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='world/2013/04/11/pkg-walker-north-korea-undercover.itn';mObj.videoSource='ITN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="C:\Program Files\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\Barry Wiraditia\nnn\130411171620-pkg-walker-north-korea-undercover-00011711-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand118Store=mObj;
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Is N. Korea a nuclear threat or not?Opinion: Does N. Korea think U.S. is soft?Aware that it cannot surrender or win, the North opens broader and deadlier artillery and missile broadsides against the South. Knowing that these forward deployed artillery and missile forces pose the greatest threat to the South if not taken out, U.S. and South Korean forces hammer North Korean emplacements north of the DMZ.The conflict ends with defeat of North Korean forces and decapitation of the North Korean leadership through massive airstrikes, but the damage to South Korea and Japan, which is within missile range, is appalling.How does this end?Right now we are somewhere between the first two scenarios -- and could remain ambiguously so for some time. The third scenario remains highly unlikely, though not impossible.The first scenario is tempting for some, because it would temporarily ease tensions, but in the long run it makes the third scenario more likely and much more lethal.That means that U.S. policy has to focus on realizing scenario two. The North's brazen actions make that more possible than ever. But it means not blinking.Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinionJoin us on Facebook/CNNOpinionThe opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Michael Green. 0Comments »SHARE THISPrintEmailMore sharingRedditStumbleUponDelicious/* push in config for this share instance */cnn_shareconfig.push({"id" : "cnn_sharebar2","url" : "http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/12/opinion/green-north-korea-scenarios/index.html","title" : "N. Korea endgame: 3 scenarios"});var OB_permalink='http://edition.cnn.com'+location.pathname;var OB_langJS='http://widgets.outbrain.com/lang_en.js';var OB_widgetId='AR_1';var OB_Template="cnnedition";if (typeof(OB_Script)!='undefined'){OutbrainStart();}else{var OB_Script=true;var str="cnnad_createAd("915015","http://ads.cnn.com/html.ng/site=cnn_international&cnn_intl_pagetype=mmst&cnn_intl_position=607x95_adlinks&cnn_intl_rollup=opinion&page.allowcompete=no¶ms.styles=fs","95","607");cnnad_registerSpace(915015,607,95);cnnad_createAd("635274","http://ads.cnn.com/html.ng/site=cnn_international&cnn_intl_pagetype=mmst&cnn_intl_position=336x850_rgt&cnn_intl_rollup=opinion&page.allowcompete=no¶ms.styles=fs","850","336");cnnad_registerSpace(635274,336,850);
Part of complete coverage on Opinion on the newsGottfried: Jonathan Winters was mad brilliantApril 13, 2013 -- Updated 0038 GMT (0838 HKT)
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In the age of social media, old and new diplomacy clashed over Bassem Youssef, the Jon Stewart of Egpyt, says Cynthia Schneider.
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