EDITION: INTERNATIONAL U.S. MÉXICO ARABIC TV: CNNi CNN en Español Set edition preference Sign up Log in Home Video World U.S. Africa Asia Europe Latin America Middle East Business World Sport Entertainment Tech Travel iReport SHARE THISPrintEmailMore sharingRedditStumbleUponDelicious/* push in config for this share instance */cnn_shareconfig.push({"id" : "cnn_sharebar1","url" : "http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-capabilities/index.html","title" : "Why North Korean intelligence is so hard to read"});Why North Korean intelligence is so hard to readBy Mike Chinoy, Special for CNNApril 12, 2013 -- Updated 1602 GMT (0002 HKT)if (typeof cnnArticleGallery=="undefined"){var cnnArticleGallery={};if(typeof cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList=="undefined"){cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList=[];}}var expGalleryPT00=new ArticleExpandableGallery();expGalleryPT00.setImageCount(33);expGalleryPT00.setAdsRefreshCount(3);//cnn_adbptrackpgalimg("Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military", 1);.cnn_html_slideshow_metadata > .cnn_html_media_utility::before{color:red;content:'>>';font-size:9px;line-height:12px;padding-right:1px}.cnnstrylccimg640{margin:0 27px 14px 0}.captionText{filter:alpha(opacity=100);opacity:1}.cnn_html_slideshow_media_caption a,.cnn_html_slideshow_media_caption a:visited,.cnn_html_slideshow_media_caption a:link,.captionText a,.captionText a:visited,.captiontext a:link{color:#004276;outline:medium none}.cnnVerticalGalleryPhoto{margin:0 auto;padding-right:68px;width:270px}
A North Korea soldier gestures to stop photographers from taking photos from a Chinese tour boat as other soldiers look on along the North Korean bank of the Yalu River near the town of Sinuiji across the Chinese city of Dandong in Liaoning province, China, on Saturday, April 6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the country's military to increase artillery production, a televised report out of Pyongyang showed on Saturday.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":true,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":1,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers gather by the docks in Sinuiju near the Chinese border on Thursday, April 4. North Korea has unleashed another round of scathing rhetoric accusing the United States of pushing the region to the "brink of war." The country may be planning a missile launch soon, a U.S. official told CNN, as tensions mount on the Korean Peninsula. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":2,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers patrol along the Yalu River in Sinuiju across the border from the Chinese city of Dandong on April 4.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":3,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers patrol along the Yalu River in Sinuiju across the border from the Chinese city of Dandong on April 4.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":3,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim Jong Un is briefed by his generals in this undated photo. On the wall is a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target mainland U.S." cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":4,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim Jong Un works during a briefing in this undated photo.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":5,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects drills by the Korean People's Army navy at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast on March 25 in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":6,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim makes his way to an observation post with North Korean soldiers on March 25.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":7,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":8,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim is greeted by the family of a soldier as he inspects Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on Thursday, March 7, in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":9,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7. North Korea has escalated its bellicose rhetoric, threatening nuclear strikes, just before the U.N. Security Council passed tougher sanctions against the secretive nation on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":10,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":11,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location on March 6. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":12,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, poses with chiefs of branch social security stations in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency on November 27. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":13,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim celebrates with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang, North Korea, during the launch of a rocket carrying a satellite, in a photo released by the official North Korean news agency on December 12. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":14,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A crowd watches as statues of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung, and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang on April 13, 2012. Photos from North Korea are rare, but the country was on full display in April 2012 as it celebrated the 100th birthday of Kim Il Sung.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":15,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":16,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket, which broke apart and fell into the sea. The UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":17,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":18,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military "}A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":19,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Koreans wave flags in front of portraits of Kim Il Sung, left, and his son Kim Jong Il during celebrations to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":20,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":21,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":22,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":23,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":24,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":25,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":26,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":27,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Kim Jong Un visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, which is under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released on July 3, 2012, by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":28,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":29,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":30,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":31,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between Pyongyang and North Pyongan province on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":32,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport during a diplomatic visit on May 2, 2001.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":33,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}HIDE CAPTIONKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military Kim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military<<<
Kim Jong Un works during a briefing in this undated photo.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":5,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects drills by the Korean People's Army navy at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast on March 25 in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":6,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim makes his way to an observation post with North Korean soldiers on March 25.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":7,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":8,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim is greeted by the family of a soldier as he inspects Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on Thursday, March 7, in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":9,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7. North Korea has escalated its bellicose rhetoric, threatening nuclear strikes, just before the U.N. Security Council passed tougher sanctions against the secretive nation on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":10,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on March 7.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":11,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location on March 6. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":12,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, poses with chiefs of branch social security stations in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency on November 27. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":13,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim celebrates with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang, North Korea, during the launch of a rocket carrying a satellite, in a photo released by the official North Korean news agency on December 12. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":14,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A crowd watches as statues of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung, and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang on April 13, 2012. Photos from North Korea are rare, but the country was on full display in April 2012 as it celebrated the 100th birthday of Kim Il Sung.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":15,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":16,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket, which broke apart and fell into the sea. The UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":17,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":18,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military "}
A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":19,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Koreans wave flags in front of portraits of Kim Il Sung, left, and his son Kim Jong Il during celebrations to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":20,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":21,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":22,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":23,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":24,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":25,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":26,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":27,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Kim Jong Un visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, which is under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released on July 3, 2012, by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":28,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":29,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":30,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":31,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between Pyongyang and North Pyongan province on April 8, 2012.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":32,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}
A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport during a diplomatic visit on May 2, 2001.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length]={"currentPicture":false,"x":0,"y":0,"pos":33,"title":"Kim Jong Un and North Korea\'s military"}HIDE CAPTIONKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military Kim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's militaryKim Jong Un and North Korea's military<<<
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33>>>Event.observe(window,'load',function(){if(typeof(cnn_adbptrackpgalimg) == 'function' && typeof(cnnArticleGallery) != 'undefined'){cnn_adbptrackpgalimg(cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[0].image,"Why North Korean intelligence is so hard to read");}});STORY HIGHLIGHTSNorth Korea has unleashed a torrent of dramatic threats against the U.S. and South KoreaThe U.S. calculates that a test launch of mobile ballistic missiles could come at any timeMike Chinoy says it's not the first time such an "alarmist" conclusion has been reachedHe suggests other U.S. agencies have disagreedEditor's note: Mike Chinoy is a former CNN Senior Asia correspondent, now a Senior Fellow at the University of Southern California-China Institute and author of "Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis." He has visited North Korea 15 times. Follow him on Twitter.(CNN) -- The latest controversy over whether North Korea has the technology to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile is not the first time American intelligence agencies have been at odds in assessing Pyongyang's capabilities. And it is not the first time the Pentagon's intelligence arm, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has been out front in reaching the most alarmist conclusions about North Korea -- one with which other U.S. agencies have disagreed.
The DIA assessment, disclosed by a Congressman at a hearing on April 11, was that the DIA has "moderate confidence" North Korea has developed a nuclear warhead that can be delivered by a ballistic missile. Within hours, however, James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, released a statement saying the DIA report did not represent the consensus of the intelligence community, and that "North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile," -- a view echoed by a Pentagon spokesman and the South Korean Defense Ministry.
Mike ChinoySecretary of State John Kerry also noted that "it is inaccurate to suggest that the DPRK has fully tested, developed or demonstrated capabilities that are articulated in that report."READ MORE: Kerry visits South Korea amid North Korea's nuclear threatsThe sharply different judgments about Pyongyang's capabilities recall a similar episode in 1998, when a fierce debate erupted within the American intelligence community after U. S. spy satellites discovered an underground complex at Kumchangri, not far from North Korea's main nuclear facility at Yongbyon.The DIA insisted that Kumchangri was a construction site for a secret, underground nuclear weapons facility and that its existence proved Pyongyang was cheating on the Agreed Framework, the Clinton administration's 1994 deal under which the North froze operations at Yongbyon in return for economic and diplomatic concessions from Washington.var currExpandable="expand17";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='spanish/2013/04/12/cnnee-montero-koreas-situation-intv.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="C:\Program Files\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\Barry Wiraditia\nnn\130412152926-john-kerry-park-geun-hye-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand17Store=mObj;
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U.N. chief to Kim: End your actions"The DIA was adamant," then-National Security Adviser Sandy Berger recalled in a 2007 interview for my book, "Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis.""They said they could see the roads that were characteristic of this kind of facility, they could actually see that this hole was perfectly suited for a nuclear reactor," he said.Other intelligence agencies at the time, including the CIA, were more skeptical. "I looked at the evidence," one senior Clinton administration official told me during research for my book, "and I could easily see innocent explanations for virtually everything they pointed to. And others in the intel community looked at exactly the same stuff and heard the DIA's arguments about it, and said essentially, this is really flimsy stuff."On August 17, 1998, the New York Times published a story that revealed the intelligence findings, turning what had been an internal intelligence debate into a public firestorm of controversy -- just as the congressman's revelations did on Thursday.The Times report, with headline "North Korea Site An A-Bomb Plant, US Agencies Say" created major problems. In Washington, the Clinton administration came under attack for Pyongyang's alleged violations of the Agreed Framework. And, unless the issue was handled with great skill, the tenuous link between the U.S. and North Korea that has existed since the 1994 deal would collapse.In the spring of 1999, Chuck Kartman, Washington's Special Envoy for Peace Talks with North Korea -- nicknamed "Iron Butt" for his ability to sit patiently and listen to North Korean envoys spew out venom, bombast and threats across the negotiating table -- engaged in protracted talks with his North Korean counterparts.var currExpandable="expand113";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='world/2013/04/12/ctw-ireport-north-korea-south-tension.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="C:\Program Files\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\Barry Wiraditia\nnn\130412095331-ctw-ireport-north-korea-south-tension-00012030-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand113Store=mObj;
South Korea concerned about threats?var currExpandable="expand213";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='world/2013/04/12/lklv-clancy-nkorea-nuke-threat.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="C:\Program Files\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\Barry Wiraditia\nnn\130405135033-north-korea-military-parade-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand213Store=mObj;
Is N. Korea a nuclear threat or not?var currExpandable="expand313";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='bestoftv/2013/04/11/exp-erin-us-official-we-do-not-believe-north-korea-developed-nuke-warhead.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='cnn.com/OutFront';mObj.lgImage="C:\Program Files\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\Barry Wiraditia\nnn\130411184420-tsr-lawrence-north-korea-missiles-nuclear-capable-00005404-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand313Store=mObj;
Conflicting messages on N. Korea nukesIn May, Kartman convinced the North to agree to permit U.S. inspectors to visit Kumchangri. In addition, after initially demanding a payment of $300 million dollars for a one-time visit, North Korea eventually accepted a shipment of 100,000 tons of potatoes as the "price" of permitting the inspection.Accompanied by a team of experts, Kartman flew to Pyongyang and the North Koreans took them to Kumchangri. To the Americans' surprise and embarrassment, they found a large, empty underground cave. There was no evidence of a secret nuclear site.The crisis passed. According to Gary Samore, then the National Security Council's Senior Director for Non-Proliferation and subsequently President Obama's Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction, Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control: "The conclusion was that Kumchangri was not configured in a way that could be used either for plutonium or for enrichment. So, whatever we thought Kunchangri was, it wasn't. It was not nuclear-related."Nearly two decades later, the purpose of the construction site at Kumchangri remains unknown. But the episode underscores the complexities of assessing intelligence on North Korea. The rush to judgment in 1998, driven by the DIA's aggressive briefings and the deliberate leak of the story to the media, left many officials at the time cautious, if not downright skeptical, about subsequent intelligence findings."DIA hyped their findings unbelievably," one former senior Clinton administration official said to me. "They mis-stated their level of certainty, and the further up the food chain they went, the more they dropped the caveats, and ended up putting us in a terrible position."Gary Samore had accepted the DIA's analysis, and lobbied strongly for the Clinton administration to make Kumchangri a major issue. "Sandy Berger [President Clinton's National Security Adviser] depended pretty heavily on my judgment," he told me, "and I feel that my recommendation to him that it was a serious issue led the administration to deal with it more seriously than it ever turns out is justified. I would say that was the biggest mistake I made in my career as a civil servant."The Kumchangri episode does not mean the DIA is necessarily wrong in its current assessment of North Korean nuclear capabilities. But the skepticism expressed by other agencies after Thursday's revelation carries a lesson. In a country which the former deputy head of the CIA, John McLaughlin, once described to me as an "intelligence black hole," serious analysts can reach sharply differing conclusions about the same evidence, and the public should be careful in taking every alarmist headline about North Korea at face value.READ MORE: Nuclear North Korea unacceptable, Kerry saysREAD MORE: N. Korea endgame: 3 scenariosREAD MORE: North Korea nears 'dangerous line,' Hagel saysREAD MORE: The North Korea we rarely see0Comments »SHARE THISPrintEmailMore sharingRedditStumbleUponDelicious/* push in config for this share instance */cnn_shareconfig.push({"id" : "cnn_sharebar2","url" : "http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-capabilities/index.html","title" : "Why North Korean intelligence is so hard to read"});var OB_permalink='http://edition.cnn.com'+location.pathname;var OB_langJS='http://widgets.outbrain.com/lang_en.js';var OB_widgetId='AR_1';var OB_Template="cnnedition";if (typeof(OB_Script)!='undefined'){OutbrainStart();}else{var OB_Script=true;var str="cnnad_createAd("272938","http://ads.cnn.com/html.ng/site=cnn_international&cnn_intl_pagetype=mmst&cnn_intl_position=607x95_adlinks&cnn_intl_rollup=asia&page.allowcompete=no¶ms.styles=fs","95","607");cnnad_registerSpace(272938,607,95);cnnad_createAd("49277","http://ads.cnn.com/html.ng/site=cnn_international&cnn_intl_pagetype=mmst&cnn_intl_position=336x850_rgt&cnn_intl_rollup=asia&page.allowcompete=no¶ms.styles=fs","850","336");cnnad_registerSpace(49277,336,850);
Part of complete coverage on Inside North KoreaEverything North Korea
Follow all of our coverage about the key issues unfolding inside North Korea and how it affects you.Will North Korea listen to China? April 12, 2013 -- Updated 0956 GMT (1756 HKT)
Kim Jong Un has refused to listen to the international community.. All eyes are on China. The North Korea you haven't seenApril 12, 2013 -- Updated 1103 GMT (1903 HKT)
The public images of North Korean power contrast with less-seen sights of extreme poverty and hunger. Expats in South Korea mull their futureApril 12, 2013 -- Updated 0908 GMT (1708 HKT)
Would you stay in a country whose neighbor was hurling threats warning of an imminent "moment of explosion"? Expats in South Korea weigh in.Who's in range of N.Korean missiles?
Check out a map of the known conventional weaponry in North Korea's arsenal and their estimated strike ranges.War of words: Timeline of threatsApril 11, 2013 -- Updated 0634 GMT (1434 HKT)
Here's a look at Kim's escalating rhetoric and his country's actions since he came to power after his father's death in 2011.N. Korea bringing U.S., China together?April 11, 2013 -- Updated 0012 GMT (0812 HKT)
CNN's David McKenzie reports on the influence China has on the heightened tension in North Korean. North Korea: A smuggler's paradiseApril 10, 2013 -- Updated 2333 GMT (0733 HKT)
CNN's Brian Todd reports on the smuggling that accounts for 10%-40% of North Korea's revenue.Tokyo asks: How safe are we really?April 10, 2013 -- Updated 0922 GMT (1722 HKT)
As tensions on the Korean peninsula rise, will missile defenses actually protect Japan if there's an attack? How does North Korea make its money?April 10, 2013 -- Updated 0024 GMT (0824 HKT)
CNN examines the North Korean economy and how Pyongyang generates its income.Seoul tells tourists: Don't be afraidApril 9, 2013 -- Updated 1302 GMT (2102 HKT)
Despite bearing the brunt of the North Korean government's hostile rhetoric, South Korea is experiencing record numbers of tourists.Nuclear map: Who has what?
More than two dozen countries have nuclear power, but only a few have nuclear weapons or are suspected of pursuing nuclear weapons. North Korea is far from suicidal April 5, 2013 -- Updated 1622 GMT (0022 HKT)
Sung-Yoon Lee says North Korea's strategy is to instill fear and hysteria in South Koreans and Americans.Fear, fascination with North Korea April 5, 2013 -- Updated 0107 GMT (0907 HKT)
Why are we so fearful and fascinated by North Korea? Here's a round-up of what you had to say on social media. Americans vacation in North KoreaApril 9, 2013 -- Updated 1600 GMT (0000 HKT)
CNN's David McKenzie speaks exclusively to a group of American tourists after their vacation in North Korea.Who is Kim Jong Un?April 5, 2013 -- Updated 0103 GMT (0903 HKT)
CNN's Kyung Lah takes a look at North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un. 
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